AN ASSESSMENT OF RICE YIELD UNDER SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FUTURE UNDER A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS WITH EPIC MODEL

Abstract

Climate change would affect the plants growth.  Therefore, this research aims to assess the rice yield under severe weather in the future in Suphanburi province under the A2 and B2 scenarios by using EPIC model and compared the rice yield in severe weather year and normal year.  The result showed major rice yield in high moisture years (in 2020 and 2026) under A2 scenario were 803.1 and 896.39 kg/rai, respectively (+12.95% and +26.07% from base year, respectively) and second rice yield were 577 and 504.77 kg/rai, which the rice yield was higher than the moderate year.  Major rice yield in severe drought years (in 2023) under B2 scenario was 424.52 kg/rai (-40.29% from base year) and second rice yield was 183.49 kg/rai, which the rice yield was lower than the moderate year.  The results of this study will be useful for farmers in preparing to adapt to the extreme weather in the future.