Runoff Response to Climate Change (Case Study : Huay Luang Basin)

Abstract

Climate change becomes more severe and affects every region in the world, such as the seasonal changes. Longer period of summer season results in more severity of droughts or more extreme precipitation in the rainy season causing droughts and floods in several areas, respectively. Anthropogenic of greenhouse gas emission is one of the main causes of “global warming” leading to higher temperature.

Climate change also affects Huai Luang river basin as floods and droughts.  The river flood caused by overbank flow and low drainage capacity create many problems in the rainy season. While during the summer season, the water demand is increased due to increased population causing droughts. In this study, we assess the runoff in Huai Luang basin using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model under CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We also investigated the SPEI (Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index) in the basin. The data analysis covers from 2022-2100 and is separated into the near-future (2022-20390, mid-future (2040-2070), and far-future (2071-2100) periods. The final results from this study will be used for water resources planning and preparedness in Huai Luang area.